I thought I would have a go at a bit of prophecy. How hard can it be?
Right, in April 2007 I predicted (well I backed the doom and gloom merchants) that a deep recession was coming. I based this on numerous independent sources including friends telling me what their monied clients were doing or what my monied clients were doing . So I followed the leaders- people who I respect for their business sense and simply copied them.
I sold my house, pocketed a tidy sum and went into a recession bunker in May 2007 (six months before the first wave and a good 18 months before recession was official). I contracted my business by simply not replacing people moving on and cut advertising to minimalise costs and passed the cuts onto customers- to remain competitive to see out the financial storm.
Following an intial wave in late 2007, by the summer of 2008- it all kicked off. The entire world banking system went into meltdown and house prices began to crash. Unemployment started rising and businesses started folding.
So basically, so far, my strategy has been pretty good and I managed to successfully back the right horse- which is this case was one of the worse case scenarios. I just picked up a property bargain (a saving of 25% from peak price) and the business is ticking over nicely. So far I have managed, by calling it well before it happened, to have incurred no significant losses- yet!
Now I have a new prediction. That prediction is this:
We are all fucked.
Within 18 months.
I reckon the worse of the recession is yet to come.